American presidential elections: A true debacle??

Have you ever experienced a true debacle? It would be something like when your (just in case) unnamed colleague buys the most expensive ticket possible to the business club in Frankfurt book fair, heads out for the business trip, meets his own Slovak clients (also unnamed but this is my greeting to them), lets the Slovaks brotherly get him incredibly drunk, unwillingly gets lost to the red district, runs away from it in fear, and with navigation in his hand gets lost again, allows unknown Czech girl to find him, release him from curse of getting lost, leads him “home”, there he annoys his friend who works in serious European finance institution at 3 am and following day which is the reason why he even came to the fair sleeps through the entirety of it with hangover. That is roughly the extent of the debacle which the hopes of finance market that the American presidential elections could go smoothly after all experienced today.

The scandal was caused – of course – by Donald Trump. I am not judging which of the candidates is “better”; that is something everybody needs to decide for themselves. I am just saying that the finance market is handling the idea of Donald Trump as president much worse and it is also difficult to deal with his latest quote: “I’ll keep you in suspense. OK?” Which we could translate as: however the elections end you will hear about me, about Trump because I might not make peace with my possible loss and acknowledge it. By the way, Clinton reacted that this is not how the democracy works in the USA. Although, the outraged reaction of politicians is one thing but the reaction of the financial market is something different.

 Financial markets want to get over with this masquerade already. They are clinging to the idea that it will end on 8th November. Now it seems that the odd present agony could have another sequel. Even though it is obvious that especially thanks to this fresh new affair the bet of the financial markets that Clinton will win got significantly stronger (because the investors are thinking that Trump shot himself to the foot with this quote). It can be seen on the exchange rate of Mexican peso which is currently the strongest against the dollar in past 6 weeks. It is understood that Trump’s victory would be a disaster for Mexican immigrants into the USA and for Mexican peso as well. To bet so unequivocally only on one candidate carries risks that are pretty big. Let’s remember the Brexit vote. Just because almost everybody under the impression of the public opinion surveys was betting against the Brexit, was its positive result so shocking for the financial market next day that it was like a small tsunami. We must consider that if Trump at the end really wins the situation will be similarly repeated. Or in other words that would mean that the next day dollar would depreciate, the stocks would globally depreciate and the euro would appreciate.