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čtvrtek 13. října 2016

Black day on the stock market: crazy stressing out or realistic suspicion?

Dear friends, I am going to tell you a little secret.
That secret is that I don’t seem to like the global stock market at all.
Of course, I’ve been making faces over the stock markets and claiming that the current prices of stocks are globally not matching their “inner value”. I’ve been claiming long-term that the fact that central banks especially in the USA, Europe and Japan are pushing cheap money into the economy with bulldozer is not leading towards the growth of consumer’s inflation (which is the growth of the prices of goods and services), but it is leading to somewhat less common inflation of the prices of securities and other financial products. That simply said, the prices of (not only) securities are extremely overvalued. I have also been always claiming that this gigantic price bubble which got blown on stock, bonds and derivatives markets can exist long enough but it is still a barrel of smouldering gunpowder for the future. Nothing new here.
This time, I see it differently. This time, I have no “wisdom” about the inflation of the price of securities, about the ratio of P/E and other cherished analytic silliness. This time, I am thinking about something which is much harder to wrap into terminology which is usually used by the analysts of financial markets. I think of the simple bad feeling in my gut. That strange fluttering sensation in my stomach. Maybe it could be called an intuition.
Wherever I go I hear about complete satisfaction: Economy is growing. Inflation is non-existent but it is not the deflation either. Employment rate is solid. Brexit vote is behind us so let the negotiations about Brexit end with whatever result, it can’t be worse than the initial shock which happened the night after the vote… And so on. That is only one point of view. I see it very different.
Firstly: The European economy is still growing but it is slowing down. It’s in the descending phase of the economic cycle.
Secondly: China is slowing down for a long time. So far nothing is suggesting that this fall would be set back.
Thirdly: The European banks are in sad condition. The German government is doing everything possible so it would appear strong but in reality, it has many problems with Deutsche Bank. The promised lowering of the 14 billion dollar fine (in USD) for Deutsche Bank still hasn’t come yet. I won’t even talk about the Italian banks.
Fourthly: It would be logical if the central banks or the governments didn’t provide any anabolic substances to support the growth during the time of economic growth but supported the economy in time of crisis. The reality is exactly opposite. In the time of growth, for example, in years 2015-16 central banks were pumping money into the economy as much as they could. Today, when the economy starts slowing down they are already out of the ammunition and started talking about the slump of their supportive politics. It has been talked in the USA about the rise of interest rates at the end of the year (I don’t believe that much), in Europe, it is talked about the continual restraining of the bonds buyout program. And that is coming up in the time of obvious upcoming global economic slowdown. Central banks are working the other way around as they should!! (The timing of introducing and then canceling the intervention regime works this opposite way in the Czech Republic.)
Fifthly: The elections in the USA are almost here which could be potentially won (from the finance world’s point of view) by the most controversial person in many decades.
Each of these events wouldn’t be that liquidating on its own but I don’t like their concurrence at all. Usually, I am pretty reserved towards somewhat shady, prophetic, unprofessional opinions when it comes to the questions of the financial market. But this time I am exceptionally letting my little bit intrusive feeling show up and it gives me chills. These feelings are saying: The condition which is the world’s financial market at right now is reminding me summer 2008. Alternatively the year 1987, which I experienced as a child and moreover from the eastern socialistic block. Either way, it is talked about enough in the literature. So in the summer 2008 and in 1987 most people weren’t making a big deal out of pessimistic thoughts either even though there had been subtle warning signs for a while already.
And then in the fall the crash of stock markets came day to day.
If my intuition is right then we can only hope that no sparks will fly on the smouldering barrel.

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