BREXIT-wishers can smile. For how long?

All those claiming that the BREXIT will “ruin” Britain, have reason to smile. First really bad

statistic from Britain came up last week.

Local manufacturing industry showed the worst numbers in the last year. Meanwhile the market was expecting the drop to be “only” 0.2 % but in reality, it was falling 0.9 %. Either way, the question is if this is really the fault of BREXIT. I do think that many people will understand it that way but the reality is much more complicated!

In my opinion, it is a global phenomenon. The summer was bad for the majority of countries and that probably relates to China’s problems, which is where everybody wants to push themselves. (At least that’s what are the German numbers indicating.) According to the statistic that was also published last week, the German industry dropped the most in last 23 months and wrote off 1.5 %. Not even that was presumably caused by BREXIT. Germany is getting out of its breath for a couple of months now. Its industry was falling even before BREXIT. The German government is expecting 1.7 % growth of the economy this year and 1.5 % following year which is in my opinion naively optimistic.

The global economy is not doing well enough so the second most important exporter can grow that fast. I am still standing behind our prognosis from February that next year we can be expecting a huge slowdown in Germany at best (and maybe even rescission at worst)...