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středa 5. října 2016

The first wave of panic around Deutsche Bank is over. But just the FIRST wave...


The first wave of panic around Deutsche Bank lasted barely few days... News about Deutsche Bank being on the right track to significantly lower the 14 billion dollar fine from the American administration for the mortgage papers manipulation, was enough for the investors to calm down. Like this news was any guarantee that Deutsche Bank is already out of the problems!
 
In fact, the flow of cheap money from the central banks is still so strong that nobody on the Wall Streets manages to frown for too long. Let’s not forget, that the American Fed is not buying out the state bonds anymore but the money on the American market stays very cheap. The Fed’s interest rates are close to zero – in the range of 0.25 – 0.50 %. For example, the European central bank is pushing cheap money into the markets too and buys bonds for 80 bn. EUR monthly. Japanese central bank is buying anything and thanks to that it will soon be able to pull the strings in many Japanese companies. Thanks to the never-ending help from the central banks and quick return of optimism to the markets, the bets on safe havens are not lasting long.

 
However, I think that more stable demand for safety will come. The problems of Deutsche Bank won’t be solved even if the American administration lowers the fine. Moreover, the American presidential election will happen next month. And if both of these events managed to happen calmly (which I don’t expect) then the Fed would stir up trouble on markets by possible raising the interest rates before the end of the year.
 
Thus, the volatility on the markets would rise at the end of the year and the gold should thrive in the environment like this. It could be interesting to bet on the virtual currency bitcoin at this time, don´t you think?

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