We know the polls…

The unpredictable politics stays the wild card in the game. It will be suspenseful for example in the France. We know already that the fight for presidential office in France will be between F. Fillon for republicans and M. Le Pen for National Front. Even though the media labels both as right wing but from the middle-European view it is a little bit non-right right wing.

For example Fillon wants to slash the cumulate national spending by one hundred billion euros over five years, cancel the tax on the wealthy (which could be labelled as right wing) but at the same time he is considering to raise the retirement age only to 65 years which is falsely low (and that doesn’t sound too right wing in the middle-European understanding.) Le Pen wants to even lower the retirement age. Is this the right wing?

According to the polls, Fillon would win in the second round of presidential election so far against Le Pen 67:33. But we know the polls… If they work as they worked during the Brexit voting or the American elections it is going to be fun.

And then there is another giant problem with the Italy. The polls there are signalizing the Sunday’s loss of Prime Minister Renzi. That should hypothetically mean the end of the government. Pressures are growing last minute on him to not resign. Simply politics. No rules apply in it.

Either way, the referendum will be a giant insecurity for the euro. The difference between yields of Italian and German bonds is on the record level already today. I would rather bet on the weaker euro…