There is a problem
in Europe: The ECB should have a bond
portfolio in the amount of 2.3 trillion euros by the end of the year. But
it is more complicated. The ECB has been saving indebted
south-European economies by those bonds-buyouts. It is the biggest creditor of
European governments. So the ECB is going to be under a giant political pressure
not to raise the interest rates.
Moreover, the south of Europe needs low
interest rates for another reason too. Italian banks are having problems with
bad loans. While the bad loans had a share only of 3 % in the year 2009 today
it is even 13 % (!). Raising of the interest rates might endanger the banks.
On the other hand, keeping the interest rates on the current levels is also
wrong. Even though Europe doesn’t have a traditional consumer inflation, the
growth of prices has manifested elsewhere. It looks like there is a mortgage bubble
in many countries, stocks are incredibly high and digital currencies
are growing to all-time highs as well.
While the bitcoin was at 1000 dollars at the
beginning of April, it is at 2725 dollars today and it has been almost on 3000
dollars at the beginning of the week. That’s why the chief of Bundesbank warned
of the dangers from digital currencies. It is understandable. Everything is
heading towards the digital currencies replacing the current currencies
one day because the central bankers are failing. So the fish doesn’t want to drain the
pond.
Reactions on the bitcoin are coming from the investment banks as well. Morgan
Stanley is asking for the bitcoin regulation. I think that the fewer people trust
the central banks the higher the bitcoin would go. It is a reaction to the
scepticism in society. Gold is doing similarly. It is important that it is growing in the long run. Today it is at 1270
dollars per ounce and it was at 670 dollars ten years ago. The more
complicated the world is the more interesting gold is.
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