One is using the pitcher until it
gets broken.
I have been announcing for a long time that we need to try hard
to get rid of the label of a cheap assemble factory. That we need to start
competing by the quality and not by the price. But we have been significantly
held up on this road by Czech national bank which is artificially keeping the
weak crown since the November 2013. And so the Czech goods continues to be
successful abroad mostly because it is cheap.
But on the other hand, because of
the cheap crown, we are not able to adequately financially value the
professionals who are having no problem moving around the European market. The
overall growth of wages in the Czech economy (despite the improvement in past
quarters) is suffocated. And they noticed that abroad in the end too. And so
the bank JPMorgan decided to eliminate the Czech Republic out of the list of
developed countries. Now it is going to be set in the group of emerging
markets.
The American bank agreed to this step because the volume of income per capita has been staying under the level set for the developed countries for past three years. To be properly developed market the fiercer yields of assets should be matching that as well. But the profits of the main index of Prague’s stock market PX has been staying around the zero past few years. Moreover, also the yields of Czech government bonds are significantly lower than what the developed countries of Asia or South America has to offer.
The American bank agreed to this step because the volume of income per capita has been staying under the level set for the developed countries for past three years. To be properly developed market the fiercer yields of assets should be matching that as well. But the profits of the main index of Prague’s stock market PX has been staying around the zero past few years. Moreover, also the yields of Czech government bonds are significantly lower than what the developed countries of Asia or South America has to offer.
So we are going to be a developing market that won’t
thrill the investors with a yield above the standard. That’s why we should
start working on getting a better reputation as soon as possible. And
specifically the reputation of the market to which people are going to invest
because of the safety, sufficient quality and human capital. JPMorgan has very
loudly hinted that the interventions of CNB are with using the pregnancy
terminology “over-carried”. (Despite that the crown keeps writing a story of
stagnation at the 27-crown level.)
Politika ČNB v měnové oblasti je jednoznačně podřízena cíli kompenzovat decelerující vliv poklesu míry investic v letech 1994 - 2012 z 36% na 22% podporou vývozu.Zaznamenaný pokles investiční míry lze vysvětlit přechodem od extenzivní do intezivní fáze růstu v důsledku přizpůsobení západoevropskému růstovému modelu. Hospodářský růstu se tak přestal opírat převážně o investice, což si vyžádalo stimulovat vývoz pomocí devalvace koruny. Je závažnou otázkou, co se stane po ukončení intervencí koruny, jelikož ke konci této dekády lze očekávat periodickou hospodářskou krizi. Bez masivní podpory agregátní poptávky, zejména investic, lze proto očekávat pokles HDP do červených čísel. Václav Novotný34
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