When I’m
looking at current economy it is reminding me a joke about how is a group of
old Teutons standing in full armour and one of them lays down on the floor, ear
down on the ground and is listening. Then he says: “I can hear swearing, a
tribe of Czechs is coming!” Friends, when I’m reading news from other parts of
the world I have a feeling that the always complaining tribe of Czechs is
significantly invasive vermin since everybody is swearing and complaining now.
When again there’s objectively not such good a reason for that.
From the point of view of macroeconomist is the unemployment rate the most
important indicator for me and that is almost everywhere all-time low. People
are doing unprecedentedly well from the point of view of the unemployment rate.
For example, the Czech unemployment rate was published yesterday and it is
showing the best results since the year 2008. German unemployment rate is again
the lowest since the year 1990 and the American unemployment rate goes even
further. Number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for a first
time surprisingly dropped last week to the level slightly above 43-year
minimum. And it is not just a swing because the 4-week average is the lowest
since the year 1973. The unemployment rate is the lowest in nine years. From
the historic point of view, nobody can complain about the lack of jobs. And
like it wasn’t enough whatever medium is complaining about a poor performance
of the economy. I am afraid that what comes next can only be a big disappointment.
New American politics asking for bigger production in the USA and for bigger
employment of the Americans, because the foreign companies are apparently
taking their jobs by leaving abroad is stupid.
Today’s data from Germany showed record breaking surplus of trade balance for
the year 2016. Normally they would be excited from it in the Germany but today
they are afraid that it is only supporting the American president D. Trump with
his statement that euro is too weak and the Germans are exploiting Americans
and south of Europe through it. So there is still a threat of high duties for
the import to the USA hanging in the air. So we are unnecessarily making a new
problem a new bogeyman which is not being supported by the real numbers.
Americans will want to produce more on their land and they won’t have anybody
to employ. But with that, the globalization is slowly starting to falter.
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