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čtvrtek 27. července 2017

Greece is celebrating. Is there a reason?

Cheer loudly and celebrate for three days! Believe it or not, Greece really issued its government bonds for the first time in three years. The fact that Greece, burdened with bankruptcy, has returned back to the financial markets has been giving strength to the European stocks past hours and days.

However, from my point of view, there is not much to celebrate. Issuing of five-year Greek bond in the volume of three billion euros with a yield of 4.625 % is still expensive. The Czech government bonds with more than twice longer 10-year to maturity are carrying a yield under 1 %. But Greece together with the entire Europe is despite that rejoicing that Greek bankruptcy is forgotten.


I don’t want to be a bad prophet but I think that it is not definite. Greece is still relying on foreign help. We could have read a couple of weeks ago that Greece can draw another part of the loan from the third rescue programme in the sum of 8.5 billion EUR. All of that while considering that the Greek government debt is still making fewer than 180 % GDP. On top of that, its size hasn’t been dropping past years but is roughly stagnating.

The European central bank might start limiting the buyout of the government bonds already in autumn. That means that it is going to partly leave the line on buying the debts of individual countries. And that is going to mean that the yields of the government bonds of the European countries are going to go gradually upwards sooner or later. And if the yields in countries such as the Netherlands or France are going to grow then the yields of Greek government bonds can be rising twice as fast.

As a Europe, we are going to worry again...

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