How Trump divided the financial world

I went to one school yesterday to have a speech for the students. They were asking me how the optimal economic politics should look like. I answered that mainly the majority of people should trust it – because the economy is a reflection of our head. When we believe in future development we don’t hesitate to spend, do business and invest. So the society needs a politician who it is willing to follow and occasionally even tighten temporary its belt for their politics. Unfortunately, the world is to certain extent missing such politics right now. Current politicians are dividing the society instead of unifying it so it would follow them. And the current American president managed to take this dividing to the perfection – and that is not saying at all if it is going to be worth it in the end. The problem is that there’s hardly anybody else who is dividing this planet to two camps more today. And exactly that is reflecting on the financial markets already:

One part of the investors is looking up to him like he is god and the other part thinks he is – forgive me – an idiot. But that is shaking the financial markets a lot according to if there are more supporters or opponents on the market at the time. Trump is managing to completely puzzle the base axioms of the last years: For example in that, that the part of democratic voters is still refusing the democratic result of the election or in that that Trump closed the America today from immigrants even from the countries which are having civil war happening in them now. So how we were hearing for years in Europe that we must simply admit the refugees from war, Trump cancelled the same opinion with one signature today. From the point of view of the financial speculators, it is much more important to guess how much he will draw the government budget in the end.

And that is not clear here at all. So far he was only trying to verbally motivate the American car companies to make more in exchange for cancelling the majority of the ecologic limitations for cars which were signed by his predecessor. So the stocks currently turned about and are growing in the expectations of higher expenses. Many stock indexes are on their long-time record today. But that is not very rational – just like how the previous drop wasn’t either. Once again it is not a bet on anything specific. You can see that even better on the forex market.
There are not as many Trump fans on the forex market like there are on the stock market. Forex players are not smitten by the promises for the car companies and on the contrary, they are afraid of the possible protectionism. Economic theory is clearly saying that protectionism is a loss for everybody from the long-term view and has no victor. That’s why the dollar is depreciating against the majority of the world’s currencies today. On the other hand, the stock markets are not perceiving this risk at all. They are looking only at how the subsectors will be doing: let’s say car companies here or oil producers there.