The economic outlook might look optimistic. But it can be also seen exactly the opposite way!

Today I am back again at work after three weeks and you won’t know how much I was looking forward to it... Well okay, I won’t be teasing you anymore - and I will recap what did the last days bring to the global economy.

Macroeconomic news was mostly optimistic. For example, the consumer confidence in the United States (which is the most visible representative of global trends) has climbed to the highest level in more than 15 years in December. That was quite surprising. Remember how in November many Americans were crying that D. Trump won the presidential elections and wanted to emigrate in their despair!

It obviously quickly vanished at least in average. The average American consumer was satisfied with the development and even optimistic (!) month later. But again there is not much to marvel at. The growth of the American economy reached 3.5 % in the third quarter. That is the most in two years. The unemployment rate dropped to its nine-year minimum. Stocks rose. Some of the European stock indexes even reached the year’s maximum this morning. So why should be the average American pessimistic?

That is also reflecting in the fact that 500 richest people on the planet got even richer by 237 billion dollars during last year to overall 4.4 trillion dollars. That matches GDP of the Czech Republic for probably 28 years. In other words, the income scissors on the planet got drastically open. 500 richest people of the world could finance the Czech Republic for 100 years (100 national budgets).

However optimistic that might look, it can be seen exactly the opposite way. It can be viewed as a sign of upcoming crisis because this state is definitely not balanced. We could also consider as an important warning coming from the United States the American real estate market starting to stumble. Last numbers are saying that the number of started businesses is dropping. That understandably doesn’t have to mean anything but when a few more drops get added to it, it can make a toxic cocktail.