The financial market is stepping from one foot to
another and waiting. We have several unknowns that the market doesn’t know what
to think about. The biggest unknown is the future American president. We are
only a couple of days away from his inauguration to the office but the markets
still clearly don’t know what he wants to do. His phrasing is general and it is
missing specific numbers. The problem of Trump is that he wants to help the economy by protectionism which unlike the domestic political attempts will induce a negative global reaction which will help nothing. The economy has proved many years ago that protectionism is bad for everybody involved:
The poll of the Reuters agency among 500 economists from all around the world
was published. Opposite to the same poll from previous time period both
optimistic and pessimistic outlooks moved down. Economists are assuming that
the probability of the global recession in this year is 10 %. Here I am far
more pessimistic about the probability. The only thing where I have changed my
opinion is that I have moved the worsening of the condition of the economy from
summer to fall. I don’t see the stimuli for growth nor political nor economic…
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